The Saudis Can Be Very Persuasive…

Tale of the Tape

Good evening everyone. The market got hammered today with the S&P 500 closing down 4.41%. We’ve now given back all of Monday’s big gains and then some and are now down 2% plus for the week. 

This was a bad start to the second quarter.

The Russell 2000 got hit especially hard losing 7%. This index has been underperforming since well before the bear market began and is a leader on the way down. 

Keep an eye on the 991 level. This was the low close on the small cap index from March 18. A close below this level could be a harbinger for the large cap indices. We’re 7.6% from that level as we write this.

Financials continue to be another area of profound weakness. The sector traded down 6% on the day and is now down 36.4% for the year. 

The regional banks are sort of the worst of both worlds. They’re small caps and financial companies. The KBW Regional Bank Index is down 44% YTD. You’d almost think it was an energy index.

S&P 5002,470-4.41%
Russell 20001,071-7.03%
Dow Jones20,943-4.44%

Stocktwits Social Sentiment Index for 04/01/20

Here’s the updated Stocktwits Social Sentiment Index. Today’s reading was the 6th lowest since the selling began. Maybe we are heading for a retest of the March 23rd low? Who knows. Place your bets…

The Saudis are Very Persuasive… 

Remember that Saudi Aramco IPO from December? You’d think with oil getting destroyed Saudi Aramco’s shares would follow suit. Well, since its IPO, shares have dropped 4.3% (Dec. 11, 32 Riyals – April 1, 30.60 Riyals). In that same period oil futures are down 63%. 

WTF. Something feels off, maybe no one is selling…? 🤔

Also, Saudis Boost Oil Output, Defying Trump’s Plea To End Price War.

The whole thing is insane.

Check out this chart from Renaissance Macro Research. It seems Finished Motor Gasoline demand has dropped a lot. Like, a lot a lot…

Quibi T-Minus 5 Days

The new short video streaming service, Quibi, is set to launch on April 6th.

And, Chance the Rapper is the new host of Punk’d which will air on Quibi. Wouldn’t it be funny if Quibi disrupted the incumbents. 😉

Quibi is offering a 90-day free trial. Don’t forget to cancel the subscription before the 90 days. 😉

Today on Stocktwits…

Links That Don’t Suck

Tim Ferriss Podcast — Former Surgeon General on Combating COVID-19, Loneliness, and More

It’s Official: Antarctica Used to Have a Rainforest

Why Time Has Slowed

The Corona Crisis vs. The Great Depression

Wimbledon Canceled for First Time since World War II

Try the Peloton App at home, now free for 90 days.

Unmasking Twitter via Stratechery